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5 Insights From SVB's The Future Of Fintech Report
And what it means for Fintech Lenders
Carlos Caro
October 28, 2025
TL;DR - We summarize SVB's October 2025 fintech report. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 100-125 basis points over the next year, potentially boosting consumer demand for loans. However, student loan delinquencies have surged above pre-COVID levels, with borrowers under 49 holding more student debt ($1.2T) than mortgages ($1.0T), signaling caution for lenders. The regulatory environment has become more favorable for fintechs with a trimmed-down CFPB, while companies have shifted focus from growth to profitability. Meanwhile, VC funding requirements have increased, with Series A companies now needing $4MM in revenue versus $1MM in 2020-2021.
1. The market expects the Fed Funds Rate to drop, but by how much?
SVB’s The Future Of Fintech Report, Oct 2025
This charts tell us what been circulating in the news for months - the Fed is going to cut rates.
But, by how much?
To measure this, we looked at CME FedWatch.
There, we learned two things.
CME FedWatch
First, it’s a near certainly (97.8%) that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting on October 29th, 2025 (that’s tomorrow!).
CME FedWatch
Second, it seems like rates will decrease by 100-125 bps one year from today, with a 57.6% probability.
Additionally, CME FedWatch shows a 19.7% chance of a greater than 150 bps reduction, and a 22.7% chance of a reduction of 75 bps or less.
This could drive consumer demand to rate-sensitive lending businesses like personal loans, auto refinances, and mortgages, assuming macro credit health (delinquencies and losses) don’t change.
So what does SVB’s report suggest about that?